Where Jordan's medical sectormeets its data.
Confluence brings forecasting, network intelligence, and what-if simulation together for the people who actually run the system — hospitals, governorates, the Ministry of Health, private operators, distributors, and donors.
Forecast. See. Simulate.
Honest forecasts
SARIMAX with Ramadan / Eid regressors, validated by backtest MAPE and 80% prediction intervals. Cold-start fallback is labelled, not hidden.
National network view
Choropleth pressure, deck.gl flow arcs, and a referral graph that show how every facility relates to the rest.
What-if simulation
Add capacity, change demand, add inventory. See the classification shift against the live forecast before any real decision.
From raw signal to defensible decision
- 01
Daily demand
Hospital-level daily demand for blood components, drugs, consumables, beds, and staffing.
- 02
Nightly models
SARIMAX + Prophet sanity-check + 28-day SMA baseline; each forecast is tagged with its model.
- 03
Action surfaces
Today shows what needs your attention. Alerts ranks open shortfalls. Network and Heatmap give spatial context.
- 04
Defensible decision
Every number on the page is a query, not a slide. Methodology is published and limits are stated.
Eight roles, one shared layer
Specific shortfalls coming this week with the nearest donor facility identified.
CMO snapshot: open alerts, transfers, classification trend.
All facilities in your governorate plus where pressure is concentrated.
National hotspots, pending transfers, cross-tier requests.
Investment priorities ranked by demand-gap evidence.
Your portfolio benchmarked against the national context.
SKU-level pipeline view aligned to national demand forecasts.
Programme tracking and recommended opportunities.
Trustworthy because it is honest
Confluence does not hide the fact that some series are cold-start, that some forecasts come with wide bands, and that some district scores are demo-quality approximations. The Methodology page documents every model, every regressor, and every limit. We do not say 'AI' when we mean SARIMAX, and we do not call this a clinical decision support tool because it is not one.